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Heat pump cost by state

What an air-source heat pump costs installed in a 1,800 square foot home, sized for each state's climate, and how long the running-cost saving takes to repay the extra over a gas furnace. Fastest first.

The extra cost over a furnace comes back in 24 of the 51 states. In the rest, gas is cheap enough that a heat pump costs more to buy and more to run, and the reason to fit one has to be something other than the bill. 22 states are cold enough to want a cold-climate model, which adds to the price.

StateInstalledBreaks even
Kentucky$8,600–$13,0004.1 yrs
Oklahoma$7,800–$11,8004.2 yrs
Georgia$7,000–$10,6004.6 yrs
Missouri$8,600–$13,0005.1 yrs
Kansas$8,600–$13,0005.3 yrs
North Carolina$7,800–$11,8006.1 yrs
West Virginia$8,600–$13,0006.4 yrs
Arkansas$7,800–$11,8006.8 yrs
South Carolina$7,000–$10,6007.3 yrs
Mississippi$7,000–$10,6007.4 yrs
Texas$7,000–$10,6007.4 yrs
Washington$8,600–$13,0009.4 yrs
Virginia$8,600–$13,00010.2 yrs
Oregon$8,600–$13,00012.2 yrs
Alabama$7,000–$10,60012.5 yrs
Ohio$9,800–$14,80013.7 yrs
Arizona$7,000–$10,60014.9 yrs
Massachusetts$9,800–$14,80015.4 yrs
Delaware$8,600–$13,00015.9 yrs
Nebraska$9,800–$14,80020.8 yrs
Tennessee$7,800–$11,80021.3 yrs
Iowa$9,800–$14,80023.4 yrs
Florida$6,200–$9,40032.1 yrs
Louisiana$7,000–$10,60045.1 yrs
Alaska$9,800–$14,800Never
California$7,000–$10,600Never
Colorado$9,800–$14,800Never
Connecticut$9,800–$14,800Never
District of Columbia$8,600–$13,000Never
Hawaii$6,200–$9,400Never
Idaho$9,800–$14,800Never
Illinois$9,800–$14,800Never
Indiana$9,800–$14,800Never
Maine$9,800–$14,800Never
Maryland$8,600–$13,000Never
Michigan$9,800–$14,800Never
Minnesota$9,800–$14,800Never
Montana$9,800–$14,800Never
Nevada$8,600–$13,000Never
New Hampshire$9,800–$14,800Never
New Jersey$8,600–$13,000Never
New Mexico$8,600–$13,000Never
New York$9,800–$14,800Never
North Dakota$9,800–$14,800Never
Pennsylvania$8,600–$13,000Never
Rhode Island$8,600–$13,000Never
South Dakota$9,800–$14,800Never
Utah$9,800–$14,800Never
Vermont$9,800–$14,800Never
Wisconsin$9,800–$14,800Never
Wyoming$9,800–$14,800Never

"Breaks even" is the extra cost over replacing a gas furnace, divided by the annual running-cost saving. It leaves out one thing in the heat pump's favour: it cools as well, so if your air conditioner is also near the end, you are replacing two machines with one and the premium is smaller than shown.