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Heat pump cost by state

What an air-source heat pump costs installed in a 1,800 square foot home, sized for each state's climate, and how long the running-cost saving takes to repay the extra over a gas furnace. Fastest first.

The extra cost over a furnace comes back in 38 of the 51 states. In the rest, gas is cheap enough that a heat pump costs more to buy and more to run, and the reason to fit one has to be something other than the bill. 22 states are cold enough to want a cold-climate model, which adds to the price.

StateInstalledBreaks even
North Dakota$9,800–$14,8002.3 yrs
Oklahoma$7,800–$11,8002.4 yrs
Kentucky$8,600–$13,0002.6 yrs
Wyoming$9,800–$14,8002.9 yrs
Georgia$7,000–$10,6003 yrs
Missouri$8,600–$13,0003.4 yrs
Delaware$8,600–$13,0003.7 yrs
North Carolina$7,800–$11,8004.1 yrs
Nebraska$9,800–$14,8004.2 yrs
Vermont$9,800–$14,8004.2 yrs
Maine$9,800–$14,8004.3 yrs
Washington$8,600–$13,0004.8 yrs
Arkansas$7,800–$11,8005 yrs
Pennsylvania$8,600–$13,0005 yrs
Virginia$8,600–$13,0005.2 yrs
Iowa$9,800–$14,8005.4 yrs
Kansas$8,600–$13,0005.4 yrs
Mississippi$7,000–$10,6005.4 yrs
South Carolina$7,000–$10,6005.7 yrs
Texas$7,000–$10,6005.7 yrs
West Virginia$8,600–$13,0005.7 yrs
Oregon$8,600–$13,0007.5 yrs
Indiana$9,800–$14,8008.1 yrs
Tennessee$7,800–$11,8008.3 yrs
Alabama$7,000–$10,6008.5 yrs
District of Columbia$8,600–$13,0009.2 yrs
Louisiana$7,000–$10,6009.9 yrs
Arizona$7,000–$10,60010 yrs
Ohio$9,800–$14,80013.5 yrs
South Dakota$9,800–$14,80014.3 yrs
Maryland$8,600–$13,00017.2 yrs
Nevada$8,600–$13,00020.3 yrs
Illinois$9,800–$14,80022 yrs
New York$9,800–$14,80028.4 yrs
Florida$6,200–$9,40031.6 yrs
Colorado$9,800–$14,80050.9 yrs
Massachusetts$9,800–$14,80062.1 yrs
Minnesota$9,800–$14,800150 yrs
Alaska$9,800–$14,800Never
California$7,000–$10,600Never
Connecticut$9,800–$14,800Never
Hawaii$6,200–$9,400Never
Idaho$9,800–$14,800Never
Michigan$9,800–$14,800Never
Montana$9,800–$14,800Never
New Hampshire$9,800–$14,800Never
New Jersey$8,600–$13,000Never
New Mexico$8,600–$13,000Never
Rhode Island$8,600–$13,000Never
Utah$9,800–$14,800Never
Wisconsin$9,800–$14,800Never

"Breaks even" is the extra cost over replacing a gas furnace, divided by the annual running-cost saving. It leaves out one thing in the heat pump's favour: it cools as well, so if your air conditioner is also near the end, you are replacing two machines with one and the premium is smaller than shown.